Modelling A.I. in Economics

AMAO American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend.(Akhtar, M.M., Zamani, A.S., Khan, S., Shatat, A.S.A., Dilshad, S. and Samdani, F., 2022. Stock market prediction based on statistical data using machine learning algorithms. Journal of King Saud University-Science, 34(4), p.101940.) We evaluate American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AMAO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. How do you pick a stock?

AMAO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AMAO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AMAO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AMAO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AMAO American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock

  1. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedged item does not affect how the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument are measured. The measurement of the changes in the value of the hedged item related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedged item was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged a volume of 100 tonnes of a commodity at a forward price of CU80 and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedged item after rebalancing would be 90 tonnes hedged at CU80. The 10 tonnes of the hedged item that are no longer part of the hedging relationship would be accounted for in accordance with the requirements for the discontinuation of hedge accounting (see paragraphs 6.5.6–6.5.7 and B6.5.22–B6.5.28).
  2. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  3. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
  4. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AMAO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for AMAO American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 7652
Market Risk5255
Technical Analysis6281
Fundamental Analysis3944
Risk Unsystematic3177

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 845 signals.

References

  1. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  2. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
  3. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  5. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
  6. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  7. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AMAO stock?
A: AMAO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is AMAO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AMAO Stock.
Q: Is American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Acquisition Opportunity Inc. Class A Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AMAO stock?
A: The consensus rating for AMAO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AMAO stock?
A: The prediction period for AMAO is (n+6 month)

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