Modelling A.I. in Economics

AMPG Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock

Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

This paper studies the possibilities of making prediction of stock market prices using historical data and machine learning algorithms. We evaluate Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AMPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AMPG stock.

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

AMPG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AMPG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AMPG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AMPG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AMPG Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 02 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AMPG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock

  1. Rebalancing refers to the adjustments made to the designated quantities of the hedged item or the hedging instrument of an already existing hedging relationship for the purpose of maintaining a hedge ratio that complies with the hedge effectiveness requirements. Changes to designated quantities of a hedged item or of a hedging instrument for a different purpose do not constitute rebalancing for the purpose of this Standard
  2. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
  3. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.
  4. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AMPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AMPG stock.

Financial State Forecast for AMPG Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba1
Operational Risk 8190
Market Risk8051
Technical Analysis3563
Fundamental Analysis3583
Risk Unsystematic7564

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 874 signals.

References

  1. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  2. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  3. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  4. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  5. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  6. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  7. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AMPG stock?
A: AMPG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is AMPG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AMPG Stock.
Q: Is Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Amplitech Group Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AMPG stock?
A: The consensus rating for AMPG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AMPG stock?
A: The prediction period for AMPG is (n+1 year)

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