Modelling A.I. in Economics

AQMS Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

This paper surveys machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. The prediction of stock markets is regarded as a challenging task of financial time series prediction.(Kohara, K., Ishikawa, T., Fukuhara, Y. and Nakamura, Y., 1997. Stock price prediction using prior knowledge and neural networks. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management, 6(1), pp.11-22.) We evaluate Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AQMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  3. Trading Interaction

AQMS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AQMS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AQMS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AQMS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AQMS Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock

  1. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  2. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
  3. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  4. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AQMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

AQMS Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB1
Balance SheetCBa3
Leverage RatiosBa3B1
Cash FlowCB3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 815 signals.

References

  1. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  2. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  3. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  4. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  5. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
  6. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  7. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AQMS stock?
A: AQMS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is AQMS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes AQMS Stock.
Q: Is Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aqua Metals Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AQMS stock?
A: The consensus rating for AQMS is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for AQMS stock?
A: The prediction period for AQMS is (n+1 year)

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