ARGUW Argus Capital Corp. Warrant (Forecast)

Outlook: Argus Capital Corp. Warrant assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. (Sable, R., Goel, S. and Chatterjee, P., 2019, December. Empirical study on stock market prediction using machine learning. In 2019 International conference on advances in computing, communication and control (ICAC3) (pp. 1-5). IEEE.) We evaluate Argus Capital Corp. Warrant prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ARGUW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. What is the use of Markov decision process?
2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

ARGUW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Argus Capital Corp. Warrant Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ARGUW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ARGUW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ARGUW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ARGUW Argus Capital Corp. Warrant
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Argus Capital Corp. Warrant

1. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.
2. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
3. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Argus Capital Corp. Warrant assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ARGUW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for ARGUW Argus Capital Corp. Warrant Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba3
Operational Risk	38	50
Market Risk	80	66
Technical Analysis	83	46
Fundamental Analysis	75	82
Risk Unsystematic	64	71

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 486 signals.

References

1. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
2. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
3. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
4. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
5. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
6. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
7. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ARGUW stock?
A: ARGUW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is ARGUW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ARGUW Stock.
Q: Is Argus Capital Corp. Warrant stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Argus Capital Corp. Warrant is Buy and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ARGUW stock?
A: The consensus rating for ARGUW is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for ARGUW stock?
A: The prediction period for ARGUW is (n+3 month)

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