Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Research Report

## Abstract

Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine the future prices of stock, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series importantly guide investors' decisions and trades. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the nonlinearity of the time series is pronounced, immediately affecting the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper proposes an intelligent time series prediction system that uses sliding-window metaheuristic optimization for the purpose of predicting the stock prices. We evaluate Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ASM:TSX stock.

## Key Points

1. Dominated Move
2. Dominated Move
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

## ASM:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ASM:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASM:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ASM:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASM:TSX Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Time series to forecast n: 04 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ASM:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

1. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.
2. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
3. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
4. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ASM:TSX stock.

### Financial State Forecast for ASM:TSX Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B3
Operational Risk 5373
Market Risk5333
Technical Analysis5539
Fundamental Analysis4858
Risk Unsystematic6638

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 832 signals.

## References

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4. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
5. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
6. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
7. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASM:TSX stock?
A: ASM:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is ASM:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ASM:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASM:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASM:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASM:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for ASM:TSX is (n+16 weeks)