AC Investment Research

AXL American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Outlook: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Accurate prediction of stock price movements is highly challenging and significant topic for investors. Investors need to understand that stock price data is the most essential information which is highly volatile, non-linear, and non-parametric and are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors across the globe. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been found to be an efficient tool in modeling stock prices and quite a large number of studies have been done on it. (Huang, Y., Capretz, L.F. and Ho, D., 2021, December. Machine learning for stock prediction based on fundamental analysis. In 2021 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI) (pp. 01-10). IEEE.) We evaluate American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

AXL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AXL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AXL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AXL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AXL American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock

  1. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
  2. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  3. A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.
  4. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

AXL American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B1
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 726 signals.

References

  1. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  2. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  3. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  4. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  5. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  6. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  7. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AXL stock?
A: AXL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is AXL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AXL Stock.
Q: Is American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AXL stock?
A: The consensus rating for AXL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AXL stock?
A: The prediction period for AXL is (n+4 weeks)

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