AC Investment Research

BANFP BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities Research Report

Outlook: BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions.(Li, J., Bu, H. and Wu, J., 2017, June. Sentiment-aware stock market prediction: A deep learning method. In 2017 international conference on service systems and service management (pp. 1-6). IEEE.) We evaluate BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BANFP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. Dominated Move

BANFP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BANFP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BANFP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BANFP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BANFP BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities

  1. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
  2. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.
  3. If a financial asset contains a contractual term that could change the timing or amount of contractual cash flows (for example, if the asset can be prepaid before maturity or its term can be extended), the entity must determine whether the contractual cash flows that could arise over the life of the instrument due to that contractual term are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. To make this determination, the entity must assess the contractual cash flows that could arise both before, and after, the change in contractual cash flows. The entity may also need to assess the nature of any contingent event (ie the trigger) that would change the timing or amount of the contractual cash flows. While the nature of the contingent event in itself is not a determinative factor in assessing whether the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest, it may be an indicator. For example, compare a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if the debtor misses a particular number of payments to a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if a specified equity index reaches a particular level. It is more likely in the former case that the contractual cash flows over the life of the instrument will be solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding because of the relationship between missed payments and an increase in credit risk. (See also paragraph B4.1.18.)
  4. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BANFP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for BANFP BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 7338
Market Risk4038
Technical Analysis7968
Fundamental Analysis5079
Risk Unsystematic3167

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 502 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  3. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
  4. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  5. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  6. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  7. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BANFP stock?
A: BANFP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is BANFP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BANFP Stock.
Q: Is BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BancFirst Corporation - BFC Capital Trust II Cumulative Trust Preferred Securities is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BANFP stock?
A: The consensus rating for BANFP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BANFP stock?
A: The prediction period for BANFP is (n+6 month)

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