Modelling A.I. in Economics

BBT BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD

Outlook: BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods(Kanade, P.A., Singh, S., Rajoria, S., Veer, P. and Wandile, N., 2020. Machine learning model for stock market prediction. International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology, 8(6), pp.209-216.) We evaluate BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BBT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

BBT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BBT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BBT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BBT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BBT BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD

  1. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  2. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.
  3. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  4. If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BBT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

BBT BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetCB3
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowCBa3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 637 signals.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  3. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  4. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  5. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  6. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  7. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BBT stock?
A: BBT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is BBT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BBT Stock.
Q: Is BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BLUEBET HOLDINGS LTD is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BBT stock?
A: The consensus rating for BBT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BBT stock?
A: The prediction period for BBT is (n+3 month)

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