AC Investment Research

BNTX BioNTech SE American Depositary Share Research Report

Outlook: BioNTech SE American Depositary Share assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 27 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Recently, a lot of interesting work has been done in the area of applying Machine Learning Algorithms for analyzing price patterns and predicting stock prices and index changes. Most stock traders nowadays depend on Intelligent Trading Systems which help them in predicting prices based on various situations and conditions, thereby helping them in making instantaneous investment decisions.(Bi, Q., Goodman, K.E., Kaminsky, J. and Lessler, J., 2019. What is machine learning? A primer for the epidemiologist. American journal of epidemiology, 188(12), pp.2222-2239.) We evaluate BioNTech SE American Depositary Share prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BNTX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Trust metric by Neural Network
  2. Market Signals
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

BNTX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BioNTech SE American Depositary Share Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BNTX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BNTX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BNTX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BNTX BioNTech SE American Depositary Share
Time series to forecast n: 27 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for BioNTech SE American Depositary Share

  1. Historical information is an important anchor or base from which to measure expected credit losses. However, an entity shall adjust historical data, such as credit loss experience, on the basis of current observable data to reflect the effects of the current conditions and its forecasts of future conditions that did not affect the period on which the historical data is based, and to remove the effects of the conditions in the historical period that are not relevant to the future contractual cash flows. In some cases, the best reasonable and supportable information could be the unadjusted historical information, depending on the nature of the historical information and when it was calculated, compared to circumstances at the reporting date and the characteristics of the financial instrument being considered. Estimates of changes in expected credit losses should reflect, and be directionally consistent with, changes in related observable data from period to period
  2. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
  3. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  4. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

BioNTech SE American Depositary Share assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BNTX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

BNTX BioNTech SE American Depositary Share Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBa3C
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 660 signals.

References

  1. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  3. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  4. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  5. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
  6. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
  7. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BNTX stock?
A: BNTX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is BNTX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BNTX Stock.
Q: Is BioNTech SE American Depositary Share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BioNTech SE American Depositary Share is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BNTX stock?
A: The consensus rating for BNTX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BNTX stock?
A: The prediction period for BNTX is (n+1 year)

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