CEQP Crestwood Equity Partners LP (Forecast)

Outlook: Crestwood Equity Partners LP assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 21 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

A speculator on a Stock Market, aside from having money to spare, needs at least one other thing — a means of producing accurate and understandable predictions ahead of others in the Market, so that a tactical and price advantage can be gained. This work demonstrates that it is possible to predict one such Market to a high degree of accuracy. (Kim, K.J. and Han, I., 2000. Genetic algorithms approach to feature discretization in artificial neural networks for the prediction of stock price index. Expert systems with Applications, 19(2), pp.125-132.) We evaluate Crestwood Equity Partners LP prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CEQP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Trading Interaction
2. Trading Interaction
3. Market Risk

CEQP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Crestwood Equity Partners LP Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CEQP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CEQP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CEQP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CEQP Crestwood Equity Partners LP
Time series to forecast n: 21 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Crestwood Equity Partners LP

1. For example, an entity may use this condition to designate financial liabilities as at fair value through profit or loss if it meets the principle in paragraph 4.2.2(b) and the entity has financial assets and financial liabilities that share one or more risks and those risks are managed and evaluated on a fair value basis in accordance with a documented policy of asset and liability management. An example could be an entity that has issued 'structured products' containing multiple embedded derivatives and manages the resulting risks on a fair value basis using a mix of derivative and non-derivative financial instruments
2. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
3. Expected credit losses reflect an entity's own expectations of credit losses. However, when considering all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort in estimating expected credit losses, an entity should also consider observable market information about the credit risk of the particular financial instrument or similar financial instruments.
4. The underlying pool must contain one or more instruments that have contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Crestwood Equity Partners LP assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CEQP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

CEQP Crestwood Equity Partners LP Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Caa2	C
Balance Sheet	C	Ba1
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	C
Cash Flow	B3	B2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 722 signals.

References

1. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
2. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
3. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
4. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
5. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
6. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
7. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CEQP stock?
A: CEQP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is CEQP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CEQP Stock.
Q: Is Crestwood Equity Partners LP stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Crestwood Equity Partners LP is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CEQP stock?
A: The consensus rating for CEQP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CEQP stock?
A: The prediction period for CEQP is (n+1 year)

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