Modelling A.I. in Economics

CFLT Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock

Outlook: Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

Data mining and machine learning approaches can be incorporated into business intelligence (BI) systems to help users for decision support in many real-life applications. Here, in this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for BI applications. Specifically, we apply structural support vector machines (SSVMs) to perform classification on complex inputs such as the nodes of a graph structure. (Batra, R. and Daudpota, S.M., 2018, March. Integrating StockTwits with sentiment analysis for better prediction of stock price movement. In 2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies (iCoMET) (pp. 1-5). IEEE.) We evaluate Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CFLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  2. Can machine learning predict?
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

CFLT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of CFLT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CFLT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CFLT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CFLT Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock

  1. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
  2. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  3. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.
  4. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CFLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

CFLT Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetB1C
Leverage RatiosBa2C
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 724 signals.

References

  1. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  3. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  4. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
  5. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  6. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  7. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CFLT stock?
A: CFLT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is CFLT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CFLT Stock.
Q: Is Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Confluent Inc. Class A Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CFLT stock?
A: The consensus rating for CFLT is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CFLT stock?
A: The prediction period for CFLT is (n+1 year)

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