AC Investment Research

CGEN Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares Research Report

Outlook: Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 29 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prediction of the Stock Market is a challenging task in predicting the stock prices in the future. Due to the fluctuating nature of the stock, the stock market is too difficult to predict. Stock prices are constantly changing every day. Estimating of the stock market has a high demand for stock customers. Applying all extracted rules at any time is a major challenge to estimate the future stock price with high accuracy. The latest prediction techniques adopted for the stock market such as Artificial Neural Network, Neuro-Fuzzy System, Time Series Linear Models (TSLM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN).(O'Connor, N. and Madden, M.G., 2005, December. A neural network approach to predicting stock exchange movements using external factors. In International Conference on Innovative Techniques and Applications of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 64-77). Springer, London.) We evaluate Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CGEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

CGEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CGEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CGEN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CGEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CGEN Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 29 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares

  1. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
  2. When designating a hedging relationship and on an ongoing basis, an entity shall analyse the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its term. This analysis (including any updates in accordance with paragraph B6.5.21 arising from rebalancing a hedging relationship) is the basis for the entity's assessment of meeting the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  3. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
  4. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CGEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

CGEN Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 692 signals.

References

  1. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  2. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  3. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  4. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  5. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  6. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  7. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CGEN stock?
A: CGEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is CGEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CGEN Stock.
Q: Is Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Compugen Ltd. Ordinary Shares is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CGEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for CGEN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CGEN stock?
A: The prediction period for CGEN is (n+1 year)

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