Modelling A.I. in Economics

CGI:TSX Canadian General Investments Limited (Forecast)

Outlook: Canadian General Investments Limited assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 22 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

In modern financial market, the most crucial problem is to find essential approach to outline and visualizing the predictions in stock-markets to be made by individuals in order to attain maximum profit by investments. The stock market is a transformative, non-straight dynamical and complex system. Long term investment is one of the major investment decisions. Though, evaluating shares and calculating elementary values for companies for long term investment is difficult. In this paper we are going to present comparison of machine learning aided algorithms to evaluate the stock prices in the future to analyze market behaviour.(Raza, K., 2017, April. Prediction of Stock Market performance by using machine learning techniques. In 2017 International Conference on Innovations in Electrical Engineering and Computational Technologies (ICIEECT) (pp. 1-1). IEEE.) We evaluate Canadian General Investments Limited prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CGI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Can machine learning predict?
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

CGI:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Canadian General Investments Limited Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CGI:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CGI:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CGI:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CGI:TSX Canadian General Investments Limited
Time series to forecast n: 22 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Canadian General Investments Limited

  1. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).
  2. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
  3. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  4. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Canadian General Investments Limited assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CGI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

CGI:TSX Canadian General Investments Limited Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa2B3
Balance SheetB3Ba2
Leverage RatiosBa3C
Cash FlowBaa2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 586 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  2. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  3. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
  5. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
  6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  7. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CGI:TSX stock?
A: CGI:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is CGI:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CGI:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Canadian General Investments Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Canadian General Investments Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CGI:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CGI:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CGI:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for CGI:TSX is (n+1 year)

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