Centerra Gold Inc. Research Report

## Summary

In this paper, we introduce a new prediction model depend on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BGRU). Our predictive model relies on both online financial news and historical stock prices data to predict the stock movements in the future. We evaluate Centerra Gold Inc. prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CG:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CG:TSX stock.

## Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

## CG:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Centerra Gold Inc. Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CG:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Beta)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CG:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## CG:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CG:TSX Centerra Gold Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CG:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Centerra Gold Inc.

1. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
2. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
3. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.
4. A contractual cash flow characteristic does not affect the classification of the financial asset if it could have only a de minimis effect on the contractual cash flows of the financial asset. To make this determination, an entity must consider the possible effect of the contractual cash flow characteristic in each reporting period and cumulatively over the life of the financial instrument. In addition, if a contractual cash flow characteristic could have an effect on the contractual cash flows that is more than de minimis (either in a single reporting period or cumulatively) but that cash flow characteristic is not genuine, it does not affect the classification of a financial asset. A cash flow characteristic is not genuine if it affects the instrument's contractual cash flows only on the occurrence of an event that is extremely rare, highly abnormal and very unlikely to occur.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Centerra Gold Inc. assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CG:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CG:TSX stock.

### Financial State Forecast for CG:TSX Centerra Gold Inc. Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 7764
Market Risk3642
Technical Analysis5633
Fundamental Analysis5670
Risk Unsystematic6261

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 720 signals.

## References

1. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
2. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
4. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
5. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
6. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
7. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CG:TSX stock?
A: CG:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Beta
Q: Is CG:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CG:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Centerra Gold Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Centerra Gold Inc. is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CG:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CG:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CG:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for CG:TSX is (n+3 month)