AC Investment Research

CIX:TSX CI Financial Corp. Research Report

Outlook: CI Financial Corp. assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

Market systems are so complex that they overwhelm the ability of any individual to predict. But it is crucial for the investors to predict stock market price to generate notable profit. We have taken into factors such as Commodity Prices (crude oil, gold, silver), Market History, and Foreign exchange rate (FEX) that influence the stock trend.(Choudhry, R. and Garg, K., 2008. A hybrid machine learning system for stock market forecasting. International Journal of Computer and Information Engineering, 2(3), pp.689-692.) We evaluate CI Financial Corp. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CIX:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

CIX:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CI Financial Corp. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of CIX:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CIX:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CIX:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CIX:TSX CI Financial Corp.
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CI Financial Corp.

  1. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  2. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
  3. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

CI Financial Corp. assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CIX:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CIX:TSX CI Financial Corp. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetB1C
Leverage RatiosBa2B2
Cash FlowBaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 526 signals.

References

  1. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Trading Signals (WTS Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  4. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  5. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  7. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CIX:TSX stock?
A: CIX:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is CIX:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CIX:TSX Stock.
Q: Is CI Financial Corp. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CI Financial Corp. is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CIX:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CIX:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CIX:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for CIX:TSX is (n+4 weeks)

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