Modelling A.I. in Economics

CMS CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

Stock market prediction is a crucial and challenging task due to its nonlinear, evolutionary, complex, and dynamic nature. Research on the stock market has been an important issue for researchers in recent years. Companies invest in trading the stock market. Predicting the stock market trend accurately will minimize the risk and bring a maximum amount of profit for all the stakeholders. During the last several years, a lot of studies have been done to predict stock market trends using Traditional, Machine learning and deep learning techniques. (Bhardwaj, N. and Ansari, M.A., 2019. Prediction of stock market using machine learning algorithms. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, 6(5).) We evaluate CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. What is neural prediction?

CMS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CMS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CMS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CMS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CMS CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock

  1. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.
  2. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  3. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
  4. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for CMS CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 6340
Market Risk6352
Technical Analysis4330
Fundamental Analysis8358
Risk Unsystematic7263

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 817 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  2. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  3. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  4. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  5. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  6. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
  7. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CMS stock?
A: CMS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is CMS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes CMS Stock.
Q: Is CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CMS Energy Corporation Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CMS stock?
A: The consensus rating for CMS is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for CMS stock?
A: The prediction period for CMS is (n+6 month)

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