AC Investment Research

CNQ:TSX Canadian Natural Resources Limited Research Report

Outlook: Canadian Natural Resources Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently.(Vazirani, S., Sharma, A. and Sharma, P., 2020, October. Analysis of various machine learning algorithm and hybrid model for stock market prediction using python. In 2020 International Conference on Smart Technologies in Computing, Electrical and Electronics (ICSTCEE) (pp. 203-207). IEEE.) We evaluate Canadian Natural Resources Limited prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CNQ:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

CNQ:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Canadian Natural Resources Limited Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CNQ:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CNQ:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CNQ:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CNQ:TSX Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Canadian Natural Resources Limited

  1. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
  2. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  3. There is a rebuttable presumption that unless inflation risk is contractually specified, it is not separately identifiable and reliably measurable and hence cannot be designated as a risk component of a financial instrument. However, in limited cases, it is possible to identify a risk component for inflation risk that is separately identifiable and reliably measurable because of the particular circumstances of the inflation environment and the relevant debt market
  4. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Canadian Natural Resources Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CNQ:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for CNQ:TSX Canadian Natural Resources Limited Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 7372
Market Risk6064
Technical Analysis5057
Fundamental Analysis4771
Risk Unsystematic4858

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 501 signals.

References

  1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  2. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  3. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  4. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  5. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CNQ:TSX stock?
A: CNQ:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is CNQ:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CNQ:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Canadian Natural Resources Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Canadian Natural Resources Limited is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CNQ:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CNQ:TSX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CNQ:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for CNQ:TSX is (n+3 month)

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