AC Investment Research

CSSEL Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant Research Report

Outlook: Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing.(Mokhtari, S., Yen, K.K. and Liu, J., 2021. Effectiveness of artificial intelligence in stock market prediction based on machine learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.01031.) We evaluate Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CSSEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

CSSEL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CSSEL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CSSEL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CSSEL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CSSEL Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant

  1. Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  2. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.
  3. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
  4. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CSSEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CSSEL Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBa1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 589 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  2. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  3. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  4. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  5. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  6. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  7. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CSSEL stock?
A: CSSEL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is CSSEL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CSSEL Stock.
Q: Is Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc. Warrant is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CSSEL stock?
A: The consensus rating for CSSEL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CSSEL stock?
A: The prediction period for CSSEL is (n+4 weeks)

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