Modelling A.I. in Economics

CYTHW Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant (Forecast)

Outlook: Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 12 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using external indicators, such as commodity prices and currency exchange rates, in predicting movements. The performance of each technique is evaluated using different domain specific metrics. A comprehensive evaluation procedure is described, involving the use of trading simulations to assess the practical value of predictive models, and comparison with simple benchmarks that respond to underlying market growth.(O'Connor, N. and Madden, M.G., 2005, December. A neural network approach to predicting stock exchange movements using external factors. In International Conference on Innovative Techniques and Applications of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 64-77). Springer, London.) We evaluate Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CYTHW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Trading Signals
  2. Decision Making
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

CYTHW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CYTHW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CYTHW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CYTHW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CYTHW Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant
Time series to forecast n: 12 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant

  1. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
  2. A contractual cash flow characteristic does not affect the classification of the financial asset if it could have only a de minimis effect on the contractual cash flows of the financial asset. To make this determination, an entity must consider the possible effect of the contractual cash flow characteristic in each reporting period and cumulatively over the life of the financial instrument. In addition, if a contractual cash flow characteristic could have an effect on the contractual cash flows that is more than de minimis (either in a single reporting period or cumulatively) but that cash flow characteristic is not genuine, it does not affect the classification of a financial asset. A cash flow characteristic is not genuine if it affects the instrument's contractual cash flows only on the occurrence of an event that is extremely rare, highly abnormal and very unlikely to occur.
  3. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
  4. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CYTHW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for CYTHW Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba2
Operational Risk 7985
Market Risk5977
Technical Analysis3257
Fundamental Analysis5672
Risk Unsystematic7247

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 861 signals.

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  2. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  3. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  5. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  6. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  7. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CYTHW stock?
A: CYTHW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is CYTHW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CYTHW Stock.
Q: Is Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Warrant is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CYTHW stock?
A: The consensus rating for CYTHW is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CYTHW stock?
A: The prediction period for CYTHW is (n+1 year)

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