DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock

Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

One decision in Stock Market can make huge impact on an investor's life. The stock market is a complex system and often covered in mystery, it is therefore, very difficult to analyze all the impacting factors before making a decision. In this research, we have tried to design a stock market prediction model which is based on different factors. We evaluate Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DAL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAL stock.

Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. Investment Risk
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

DAL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DAL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DAL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DAL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock

1. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
2. The risk of a default occurring on financial instruments that have comparable credit risk is higher the longer the expected life of the instrument; for example, the risk of a default occurring on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of 10 years is higher than that on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of five years.
3. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferor's contractual rights or obligations related to the transfer are not accounted for separately as derivatives if recognising both the derivative and either the transferred asset or the liability arising from the transfer would result in recognising the same rights or obligations twice. For example, a call option retained by the transferor may prevent a transfer of financial assets from being accounted for as a sale. In that case, the call option is not separately recognised as a derivative asset.
4. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DAL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAL stock.

Financial State Forecast for DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B3
Operational Risk	75	49
Market Risk	69	59
Technical Analysis	55	57
Fundamental Analysis	47	39
Risk Unsystematic	73	35

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 876 signals.

References

1. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
2. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
3. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
4. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
5. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
6. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
7. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for DAL stock?
A: DAL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is DAL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAL Stock.
Q: Is Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Delta Air Lines Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DAL stock?
A: The consensus rating for DAL is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for DAL stock?
A: The prediction period for DAL is (n+4 weeks)

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