Modelling A.I. in Economics

DRAY Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares (Forecast)

Outlook: Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend.(Yuan, X., Yuan, J., Jiang, T. and Ain, Q.U., 2020. Integrated long-term stock selection models based on feature selection and machine learning algorithms for China stock market. IEEE Access, 8, pp.22672-22685.) We evaluate Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DRAY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

DRAY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DRAY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DRAY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DRAY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DRAY Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares

  1. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
  2. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
  3. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
  4. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DRAY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

DRAY Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Caa2
Balance SheetBa3Caa2
Leverage RatiosBa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 865 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  2. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  3. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
  4. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  5. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  6. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  7. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DRAY stock?
A: DRAY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is DRAY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DRAY Stock.
Q: Is Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Macondray Capital Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DRAY stock?
A: The consensus rating for DRAY is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for DRAY stock?
A: The prediction period for DRAY is (n+6 month)

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