Modelling A.I. in Economics

DRTT DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares

Outlook: DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization.(Jiang, M., Jia, L., Chen, Z. and Chen, W., 2020. The two-stage machine learning ensemble models for stock price prediction by combining mode decomposition, extreme learning machine and improved harmony search algorithm. Annals of Operations Research, pp.1-33.) We evaluate DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DRTT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. Market Signals

DRTT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DRTT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DRTT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DRTT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DRTT DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
  2. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.
  3. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
  4. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DRTT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for DRTT DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 4538
Market Risk7857
Technical Analysis6255
Fundamental Analysis3383
Risk Unsystematic3862

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 522 signals.

References

  1. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  2. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  3. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  4. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  5. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  6. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  7. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DRTT stock?
A: DRTT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is DRTT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DRTT Stock.
Q: Is DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd. Common Shares is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DRTT stock?
A: The consensus rating for DRTT is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for DRTT stock?
A: The prediction period for DRTT is (n+1 year)



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