Modelling A.I. in Economics

DSL DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests

Outlook: DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 22 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

In modern financial market, the most crucial problem is to find essential approach to outline and visualizing the predictions in stock-markets to be made by individuals in order to attain maximum profit by investments. The stock market is a transformative, non-straight dynamical and complex system. Long term investment is one of the major investment decisions. Though, evaluating shares and calculating elementary values for companies for long term investment is difficult. In this paper we are going to present comparison of machine learning aided algorithms to evaluate the stock prices in the future to analyze market behaviour.(Shen, S., Jiang, H. and Zhang, T., 2012. Stock market forecasting using machine learning algorithms. Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, pp.1-5.) We evaluate DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DSL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. What is prediction model?

DSL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DSL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DSL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DSL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DSL DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests
Time series to forecast n: 22 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests

  1. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.
  2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  3. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
  4. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DSL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

DSL DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2B3
Cash FlowBa3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 643 signals.

References

  1. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  2. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  4. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
  5. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  6. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  7. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DSL stock?
A: DSL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is DSL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DSL Stock.
Q: Is DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interests is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DSL stock?
A: The consensus rating for DSL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for DSL stock?
A: The prediction period for DSL is (n+1 year)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.