Outlook: Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Short - term price movements, contribute a considerable measure to the unpredictability of the securities exchanges. Accurately predicting the price fluctuations in stock market is a huge economical advantage. The aforementioned task is generally achieved by analyzing the company, this is called as fundamental analysis. Another method, which is undergoing a lot of research work recently, is to create a predictive algorithmic model using machine learning. To train machines to take trading decisions in such short - period of time, the latter method needs to be adopted. Deep Neural Networks, being the most exceptional innovation in Machine Learning, have been utilized to develop a short-term prediction model. (Naeini, M.P., Taremian, H. and Hashemi, H.B., 2010, October. Stock market value prediction using neural networks. In 2010 international conference on computer information systems and industrial management applications (CISIM) (pp. 132-136). IEEE.) We evaluate Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. Decision Making

## DX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## DX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DX Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock

1. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
2. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
3. Sales that occur for other reasons, such as sales made to manage credit concentration risk (without an increase in the assets' credit risk), may also be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows. In particular, such sales may be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if those sales are infrequent (even if significant in value) or insignificant in value both individually and in aggregate (even if frequent). If more than an infrequent number of such sales are made out of a portfolio and those sales are more than insignificant in value (either individually or in aggregate), the entity needs to assess whether and how such sales are consistent with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows. Whether a third party imposes the requirement to sell the financial assets, or that activity is at the entity's discretion, is not relevant to this assessment. An increase in the frequency or value of sales in a particular period is not necessarily inconsistent with an objective to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, if an entity can explain the reasons for those sales and demonstrate why those sales do not reflect a change in the entity's business model. In addition, sales may be consistent with the objective of holding financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if the sales are made close to the maturity of the financial assets and the proceeds from the sales approximate the collection of the remaining contractual cash flows.
4. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### Financial State Forecast for DX Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 8255
Market Risk3183
Technical Analysis5382
Fundamental Analysis7969
Risk Unsystematic9050

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 658 signals.

## References

1. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
2. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
3. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
4. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
5. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
7. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DX stock?
A: DX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is DX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DX Stock.
Q: Is Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DX stock?
A: The consensus rating for DX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for DX stock?
A: The prediction period for DX is (n+16 weeks)