**Outlook:**Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Sell

**Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction.(Torres P, E.P., Hernández-Álvarez, M., Torres Hernández, E.A. and Yoo, S.G., 2019, February. Stock market data prediction using machine learning techniques. In International conference on information technology & systems (pp. 539-547). Springer, Cham.)** We evaluate Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the EARN stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EARN stock.**

## Key Points

- How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
- Probability Distribution
- How useful are statistical predictions?

## EARN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EARN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Sign Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({a}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EARN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## EARN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**EARN Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest

**Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EARN stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest

- An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
- An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
- If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
- If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the EARN stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EARN stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for EARN Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Caa2 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 56 | 89 |

Market Risk | 59 | 80 |

Technical Analysis | 32 | 31 |

Fundamental Analysis | 30 | 56 |

Risk Unsystematic | 43 | 59 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
- R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
- Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
- Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
- Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
- S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for EARN stock?A: EARN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test

Q: Is EARN stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EARN Stock.

Q: Is Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is Sell and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of EARN stock?

A: The consensus rating for EARN is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for EARN stock?

A: The prediction period for EARN is (n+16 weeks)

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