Modelling A.I. in Economics

EMU EMU NL

Outlook: EMU NL assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

As stock data is characterized by highly noisy and non-stationary, stock price prediction is regarded as a knotty problem. In this paper, we propose new two-stage ensemble models by combining empirical mode decomposition (EMD) (or variational mode decomposition (VMD)), extreme learning machine (ELM) and improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm for stock price prediction, which are respectively named EMD–ELM–IHS and VMD–ELM–IHS.(Khare, K., Darekar, O., Gupta, P. and Attar, V.Z., 2017, May. Short term stock price prediction using deep learning. In 2017 2nd IEEE international conference on recent trends in electronics, information & communication technology (RTEICT) (pp. 482-486). IEEE.) We evaluate EMU NL prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EMU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

EMU Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider EMU NL Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EMU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EMU stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EMU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EMU EMU NL
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for EMU NL

  1. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
  2. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
  3. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.
  4. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

EMU NL assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EMU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Financial State Forecast for EMU EMU NL Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 5061
Market Risk5190
Technical Analysis3443
Fundamental Analysis7080
Risk Unsystematic8550

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 499 signals.

References

  1. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  2. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  3. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  4. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
  5. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  6. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  7. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EMU stock?
A: EMU stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is EMU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EMU Stock.
Q: Is EMU NL stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EMU NL is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EMU stock?
A: The consensus rating for EMU is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for EMU stock?
A: The prediction period for EMU is (n+1 year)

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