ENERGY ONE LIMITED Research Report

## Summary

Stocks are possibly the most popular financial instrument invented for building wealth and are the centerpiece of any investment portfolio. The advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. From last few decades, there seen explosive increase in the average person's interest for stock market. In a financially explosive market, as the stock market, it is important to have a very accurate prediction of a future trend. Because of the financial crisis and recording profits, it is compulsory to have a secure prediction of the values of the stocks. Predicting a non-linear signal requires progressive algorithms of machine learning with help of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We evaluate ENERGY ONE LIMITED prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EOL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EOL stock.

## Key Points

1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
2. Dominated Move
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

## EOL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ENERGY ONE LIMITED Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of EOL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EOL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## EOL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EOL ENERGY ONE LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EOL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ENERGY ONE LIMITED

1. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
2. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).
3. If a financial instrument is designated in accordance with paragraph 6.7.1 as measured at fair value through profit or loss after its initial recognition, or was previously not recognised, the difference at the time of designation between the carrying amount, if any, and the fair value shall immediately be recognised in profit or loss. For financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A, the cumulative gain or loss previously recognised in other comprehensive income shall immediately be reclassified from equity to profit or loss as a reclassification adjustment.
4. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

ENERGY ONE LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EOL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EOL stock.

### Financial State Forecast for EOL ENERGY ONE LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 6548
Market Risk6563
Technical Analysis3272
Fundamental Analysis7948
Risk Unsystematic3764

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 634 signals.

## References

1. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
2. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
3. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
4. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
5. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
6. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
7. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EOL stock?
A: EOL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is EOL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EOL Stock.
Q: Is ENERGY ONE LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ENERGY ONE LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EOL stock?
A: The consensus rating for EOL is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for EOL stock?
A: The prediction period for EOL is (n+16 weeks)