Modelling A.I. in Economics

ERJ Embraer S.A. Common Stock (Forecast)

Embraer S.A. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

Financial markets are fascinating if you can predict them. Also, the traders acting on financial markets produce a vast amount of information to analyse the consequences of investing according to the current market trends. Stock Market prediction is the technique to determine whether stock value will go up or down as it plays an active role in the financial gain of nation's economic status. We evaluate Embraer S.A. Common Stock prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ERJ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ERJ stock.

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  3. What is prediction in deep learning?

ERJ Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Embraer S.A. Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ERJ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ERJ stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ERJ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ERJ Embraer S.A. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 02 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ERJ stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Embraer S.A. Common Stock

  1. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
  2. Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  3. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Embraer S.A. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ERJ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ERJ stock.

Financial State Forecast for ERJ Embraer S.A. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 7365
Market Risk3735
Technical Analysis5283
Fundamental Analysis5647
Risk Unsystematic8932

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 475 signals.

References

  1. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  2. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  3. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  4. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  5. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  6. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  7. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ERJ stock?
A: ERJ stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is ERJ stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ERJ Stock.
Q: Is Embraer S.A. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Embraer S.A. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ERJ stock?
A: The consensus rating for ERJ is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ERJ stock?
A: The prediction period for ERJ is (n+3 month)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.