Outlook: Ero Copper Corp. assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 21 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA.(Usmani, M., Adil, S.H., Raza, K. and Ali, S.S.A., 2016, August. Stock market prediction using machine learning techniques. In 2016 3rd international conference on computer and information sciences (ICCOINS) (pp. 322-327). IEEE.) We evaluate Ero Copper Corp. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ERO:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

## ERO:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ero Copper Corp. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ERO:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ERO:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ERO:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ERO:TSX Ero Copper Corp.
Time series to forecast n: 21 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Ero Copper Corp.

1. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
2. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.
3. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
4. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Ero Copper Corp. assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ERO:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### ERO:TSX Ero Copper Corp. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B3
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa3Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 527 signals.

## References

1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
2. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
3. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
4. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
5. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
6. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
7. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ERO:TSX stock?
A: ERO:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is ERO:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ERO:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Ero Copper Corp. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ero Copper Corp. is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ERO:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for ERO:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ERO:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for ERO:TSX is (n+1 year)