AC Investment Research

EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares Research Report

Outlook: Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 26 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

This paper tries to address the problem of stock market prediction leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. The stock market prediction can be modeled based on two principal analyses called technical and fundamental. In the technical analysis approach, the regression machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed to predict the stock price trend at the end of a business day based on the historical price data. In contrast, in the fundamental analysis, the classification ML algorithms are applied to classify the public sentiment based on news and social media.(Cao, B., Zhao, J., Lv, Z., Gu, Y., Yang, P. and Halgamuge, S.K., 2020. Multiobjective evolution of fuzzy rough neural network via distributed parallelism for stock prediction. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 28(5), pp.939-952.) We evaluate Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EVTL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. Trading Signals

EVTL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EVTL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EVTL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EVTL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 26 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares

  1. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
  2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
  3. An entity may retain the right to a part of the interest payments on transferred assets as compensation for servicing those assets. The part of the interest payments that the entity would give up upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract is allocated to the servicing asset or servicing liability. The part of the interest payments that the entity would not give up is an interest-only strip receivable. For example, if the entity would not give up any interest upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract, the entire interest spread is an interest-only strip receivable. For the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, the fair values of the servicing asset and interest-only strip receivable are used to allocate the carrying amount of the receivable between the part of the asset that is derecognised and the part that continues to be recognised. If there is no servicing fee specified or the fee to be received is not expected to compensate the entity adequately for performing the servicing, a liability for the servicing obligation is recognised at fair value.
  4. Unless paragraph 6.8.8 applies, for a hedge of a non-contractually specified benchmark component of interest rate risk, an entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component shall be separately identifiable—only at the inception of the hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EVTL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 771 signals.

References

  1. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  2. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  3. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
  4. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold AQN Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  7. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EVTL stock?
A: EVTL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is EVTL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EVTL Stock.
Q: Is Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Vertical Aerospace Ltd. Ordinary Shares is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EVTL stock?
A: The consensus rating for EVTL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for EVTL stock?
A: The prediction period for EVTL is (n+16 weeks)

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