Modelling A.I. in Economics

FCCO First Community Corporation Common Stock

Outlook: First Community Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

Abstract

Finance is one of the pioneering industries that started using Machine Learning (ML), a subset of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early 80s for market prediction. Since then, major firms and hedge funds have adopted machine learning for stock prediction, portfolio optimization, credit lending, stock betting, etc. In this paper, we survey all the different approaches of machine learning that can be incorporated in applied finance.(Anand, C., 2021. Comparison of stock price prediction models using pre-trained neural networks. Journal of Ubiquitous Computing and Communication Technologies (UCCT), 3(02), pp.122-134.) We evaluate First Community Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FCCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Reaction Function
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

FCCO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider First Community Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of FCCO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FCCO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FCCO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FCCO First Community Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for First Community Corporation Common Stock

  1. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
  2. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.
  3. An entity may retain the right to a part of the interest payments on transferred assets as compensation for servicing those assets. The part of the interest payments that the entity would give up upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract is allocated to the servicing asset or servicing liability. The part of the interest payments that the entity would not give up is an interest-only strip receivable. For example, if the entity would not give up any interest upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract, the entire interest spread is an interest-only strip receivable. For the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, the fair values of the servicing asset and interest-only strip receivable are used to allocate the carrying amount of the receivable between the part of the asset that is derecognised and the part that continues to be recognised. If there is no servicing fee specified or the fee to be received is not expected to compensate the entity adequately for performing the servicing, a liability for the servicing obligation is recognised at fair value.
  4. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

First Community Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FCCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

FCCO First Community Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 666 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  2. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  3. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  4. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  5. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  6. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  7. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FCCO stock?
A: FCCO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Beta
Q: Is FCCO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FCCO Stock.
Q: Is First Community Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for First Community Corporation Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FCCO stock?
A: The consensus rating for FCCO is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FCCO stock?
A: The prediction period for FCCO is (n+3 month)

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