Modelling A.I. in Economics

FIS Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Short - term price movements, contribute a considerable measure to the unpredictability of the securities exchanges. Accurately predicting the price fluctuations in stock market is a huge economical advantage. The aforementioned task is generally achieved by analyzing the company, this is called as fundamental analysis. Another method, which is undergoing a lot of research work recently, is to create a predictive algorithmic model using machine learning. To train machines to take trading decisions in such short - period of time, the latter method needs to be adopted. Deep Neural Networks, being the most exceptional innovation in Machine Learning, have been utilized to develop a short-term prediction model. (Waqar, M., Dawood, H., Guo, P., Shahnawaz, M.B. and Ghazanfar, M.A., 2017, December. Prediction of stock market by principal component analysis. In 2017 13th International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security (CIS) (pp. 599-602). IEEE.) We evaluate Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FIS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

FIS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of FIS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FIS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FIS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FIS Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock

  1. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  2. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  3. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
  4. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FIS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

FIS Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3B2
Balance SheetCaa2Ba2
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowCBa1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 829 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  2. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  3. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
  4. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
  6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  7. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FIS stock?
A: FIS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is FIS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FIS Stock.
Q: Is Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Fidelity National Information Services Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FIS stock?
A: The consensus rating for FIS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for FIS stock?
A: The prediction period for FIS is (n+4 weeks)

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