## Summary

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy.** We evaluate Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the FLC stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLC stock.**

## Key Points

- How do you pick a stock?
- Reaction Function
- Which neural network is best for prediction?

## FLC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of FLC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Sign Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FLC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## FLC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**FLC Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLC stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock

- For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
- Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.
- Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.
- When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the FLC stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLC stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for FLC Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 45 | 65 |

Market Risk | 30 | 42 |

Technical Analysis | 82 | 71 |

Fundamental Analysis | 60 | 40 |

Risk Unsystematic | 63 | 72 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
- Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
- D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
- Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
- E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
- S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
- Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FLC stock?A: FLC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test

Q: Is FLC stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLC Stock.

Q: Is Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of FLC stock?

A: The consensus rating for FLC is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for FLC stock?

A: The prediction period for FLC is (n+4 weeks)