Modelling A.I. in Economics

FVI:TSX Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

Outlook: Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. (Wang, Y., 2014. Stock price direction prediction by directly using prices data: an empirical study on the KOSPI and HSI. International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining, 9(2), pp.145-160.) We evaluate Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FVI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. Is now good time to invest?

FVI:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of FVI:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FVI:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FVI:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FVI:TSX Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

  1. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.
  2. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.
  3. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.
  4. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FVI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for FVI:TSX Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Baa2
Operational Risk 5987
Market Risk6284
Technical Analysis4746
Fundamental Analysis5358
Risk Unsystematic3087

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 482 signals.

References

  1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  2. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  3. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  6. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  7. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FVI:TSX stock?
A: FVI:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is FVI:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes FVI:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FVI:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for FVI:TSX is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for FVI:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for FVI:TSX is (n+3 month)

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