GNUS Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock

Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

The main objective of this research is to predict the market performance on day closing using different machine learning techniques. The prediction model uses different attributes as an input and predicts market as Positive & Negative. We evaluate Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GNUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GNUS stock.

Key Points

1. What is neural prediction?
2. Reaction Function
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

GNUS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GNUS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GNUS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GNUS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GNUS Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 04 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GNUS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock

1. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
2. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.
3. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
4. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GNUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GNUS stock.

Financial State Forecast for GNUS Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Baa2
Operational Risk	85	70
Market Risk	87	87
Technical Analysis	40	84
Fundamental Analysis	38	81
Risk Unsystematic	56	56

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 649 signals.

References

1. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
3. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
4. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
5. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
7. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GNUS stock?
A: GNUS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is GNUS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GNUS Stock.
Q: Is Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Genius Brands International Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GNUS stock?
A: The consensus rating for GNUS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GNUS stock?
A: The prediction period for GNUS is (n+1 year)

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