GOGL Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock

Outlook: Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Several intelligent data mining approaches, including neural networks, have been widely employed by academics during the last decade. In today's rapidly evolving economy, stock market data prediction and analysis play a significant role. Several non-linear models like neural network, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) as well as linear models like Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average (MA) and Auto Regressive (AR) may be used for stock forecasting.(Prasad, V.V., Gumparthi, S., Venkataramana, L.Y., Srinethe, S., Sruthi Sree, R.M. and Nishanthi, K., 2022. Prediction of Stock Prices Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models: A Comparative Analysis. The Computer Journal, 65(5), pp.1338-1351.) We evaluate Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GOGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Operational Risk
2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
3. Nash Equilibria

GOGL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GOGL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GOGL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GOGL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GOGL Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock

1. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
2. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.
3. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
4. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GOGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for GOGL Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	52	61
Market Risk	44	50
Technical Analysis	56	54
Fundamental Analysis	68	54
Risk Unsystematic	87	75

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 661 signals.

References

1. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
2. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Tempur Sealy Stock Forecast & Analysis. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
4. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
5. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
6. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
7. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GOGL stock?
A: GOGL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is GOGL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GOGL Stock.
Q: Is Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Golden Ocean Group Limited Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GOGL stock?
A: The consensus rating for GOGL is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GOGL stock?
A: The prediction period for GOGL is (n+3 month)

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