Modelling A.I. in Economics

GOVX GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Abstract

Outlook: GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Signal: Buy
Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network.(Kumar, I., Dogra, K., Utreja, C. and Yadav, P., 2018, April. A comparative study of supervised machine learning algorithms for stock market trend prediction. In 2018 Second International Conference on Inventive Communication and Computational Technologies (ICICCT) (pp. 1003-1007). IEEE.) We evaluate GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GOVX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GOVX stock.

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. Probability Distribution

GOVX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GOVX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GOVX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GOVX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GOVX GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GOVX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock

  1. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  2. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
  3. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  4. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GOVX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GOVX stock.

Financial State Forecast for GOVX GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 5739
Market Risk6668
Technical Analysis4673
Fundamental Analysis8382
Risk Unsystematic6245

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 624 signals.

References

  1. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  2. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
  3. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
  5. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  6. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GOVX stock?
A: GOVX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is GOVX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GOVX Stock.
Q: Is GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GeoVax Labs Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GOVX stock?
A: The consensus rating for GOVX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GOVX stock?
A: The prediction period for GOVX is (n+4 weeks)

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