Outlook: GULLEWA LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

With the up-gradation of technology and exploration of new machine learning models, the stock market data analysis has gained attention as these models provide a platform for businessman and traders to choose more profitable stocks. As these data are in large volumes and highly complex so a need of more efficient machine learning model for daily predictions is always looked upon.(Saad, E.W., Prokhorov, D.V. and Wunsch, D.C., 1998. Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks. IEEE Transactions on neural networks, 9(6), pp.1456-1470.) We evaluate GULLEWA LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GUL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

## Key Points

1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

## GUL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider GULLEWA LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of GUL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GUL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## GUL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GUL GULLEWA LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for GULLEWA LIMITED

1. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
2. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.
3. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
4. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

GULLEWA LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GUL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

### Financial State Forecast for GUL GULLEWA LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 3165
Market Risk5342
Technical Analysis8041
Fundamental Analysis7163
Risk Unsystematic8984

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 490 signals.

## References

1. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
2. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
3. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
5. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
6. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
7. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GUL stock?
A: GUL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is GUL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes GUL Stock.
Q: Is GULLEWA LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GULLEWA LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GUL stock?
A: The consensus rating for GUL is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for GUL stock?
A: The prediction period for GUL is (n+1 year)