Outlook: HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization.(Shen, S., Jiang, H. and Zhang, T., 2012. Stock market forecasting using machine learning algorithms. Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, pp.1-5.) We evaluate HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HAW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. Is Target price a good indicator?
3. What is a prediction confidence?

## HAW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HAW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HAW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HAW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HAW HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED

1. An entity may retain the right to a part of the interest payments on transferred assets as compensation for servicing those assets. The part of the interest payments that the entity would give up upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract is allocated to the servicing asset or servicing liability. The part of the interest payments that the entity would not give up is an interest-only strip receivable. For example, if the entity would not give up any interest upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract, the entire interest spread is an interest-only strip receivable. For the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, the fair values of the servicing asset and interest-only strip receivable are used to allocate the carrying amount of the receivable between the part of the asset that is derecognised and the part that continues to be recognised. If there is no servicing fee specified or the fee to be received is not expected to compensate the entity adequately for performing the servicing, a liability for the servicing obligation is recognised at fair value.
2. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
3. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
4. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HAW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### Financial State Forecast for HAW HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 8855
Market Risk3757
Technical Analysis3148
Fundamental Analysis6972
Risk Unsystematic9085

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 867 signals.

## References

1. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
2. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
5. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
6. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
7. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HAW stock?
A: HAW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is HAW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HAW Stock.
Q: Is HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HAWTHORN RESOURCES LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HAW stock?
A: The consensus rating for HAW is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for HAW stock?
A: The prediction period for HAW is (n+8 weeks)