Modelling A.I. in Economics

HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

In the finance world stock trading is one of the most important activities. Stock market prediction is an act of trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. This paper explains the prediction of a stock using Machine Learning. The technical and fundamental or the time series analysis is used by the most of the stockbrokers while making the stock predictions.(Adebiyi, A.A., Ayo, C.K., Adebiyi, M. and Otokiti, S.O., 2012. Stock price prediction using neural network with hybridized market indicators. Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences, 3(1).) We evaluate Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

HOV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of HOV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HOV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HOV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock

  1. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
  2. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
  3. If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
  4. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBa3
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 647 signals.

References

  1. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  2. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  3. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  4. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  5. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  6. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  7. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HOV stock?
A: HOV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is HOV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HOV Stock.
Q: Is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HOV stock?
A: The consensus rating for HOV is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for HOV stock?
A: The prediction period for HOV is (n+1 year)

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