## Summary

In this paper, we propose a robust and novel hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. The proposed model is constituted of two linear models: autoregressive moving average model, exponential smoothing model and a non-linear model: recurrent neural network. Training data for recurrent neural network is generated by a new regression model. Recurrent neural network produces satisfactory predictions as compared to linear models. With the goal to further improve the accuracy of predictions, the proposed hybrid prediction model merges predictions obtained from these three prediction based models. ** We evaluate HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE) prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HQI stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HQI stock.**

## Key Points

- Can neural networks predict stock market?
- Can statistics predict the future?
- Market Risk

## HQI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE) Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of HQI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HQI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HQI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**HQI HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE)

**Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022**for (n+3 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HQI stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE)

- Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
- An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
- If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
- If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE) assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HQI stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HQI stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for HQI HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE) Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | Baa2 |

Operational Risk | 76 | 76 |

Market Risk | 75 | 84 |

Technical Analysis | 52 | 56 |

Fundamental Analysis | 40 | 72 |

Risk Unsystematic | 48 | 84 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
- Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
- Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
- Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
- S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
- S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
- D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HQI stock?A: HQI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

Q: Is HQI stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HQI Stock.

Q: Is HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE) stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for HireQuest Inc. Common Stock (DE) is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of HQI stock?

A: The consensus rating for HQI is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for HQI stock?

A: The prediction period for HQI is (n+3 month)

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