Modelling A.I. in Economics

HVBC HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Several intelligent data mining approaches, including neural networks, have been widely employed by academics during the last decade. In today's rapidly evolving economy, stock market data prediction and analysis play a significant role. Several non-linear models like neural network, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) as well as linear models like Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average (MA) and Auto Regressive (AR) may be used for stock forecasting.(de Oliveira, F.A., Zárate, L.E., de Azevedo Reis, M. and Nobre, C.N., 2011, October. The use of artificial neural networks in the analysis and prediction of stock prices. In 2011 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (pp. 2151-2155). IEEE.) We evaluate HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

HVBC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HVBC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HVBC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HVBC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HVBC HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 08 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock

  1. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
  2. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
  3. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Financial State Forecast for HVBC HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 4636
Market Risk5637
Technical Analysis5657
Fundamental Analysis3273
Risk Unsystematic6587

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 576 signals.

References

  1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  2. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  3. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  4. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  5. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HVBC stock?
A: HVBC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is HVBC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HVBC Stock.
Q: Is HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HV Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HVBC stock?
A: The consensus rating for HVBC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HVBC stock?
A: The prediction period for HVBC is (n+8 weeks)

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