**Outlook:**InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Buy

**Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022**for (n+3 month)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Impact of many factors on the stock prices makes the stock prediction a difficult and highly complicated task. In this paper, machine learning techniques have been applied for the stock price prediction in order to overcome such difficulties. In the implemented work, five models have been developed and their performances are compared in predicting the stock market trends.(Beg, M.O., Awan, M.N. and Ali, S.S., 2019. Algorithmic machine learning for prediction of stock prices. In FinTech as a Disruptive Technology for Financial Institutions (pp. 142-169). IGI Global.)** We evaluate InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the IHT stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

## Key Points

- What is a prediction confidence?
- How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
- What are main components of Markov decision process?

## IHT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of IHT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IHT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## IHT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**IHT InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest

**Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022**for (n+3 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest

- When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
- IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
- In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
- An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the IHT stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

### Financial State Forecast for IHT InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B3 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 57 | 37 |

Market Risk | 46 | 58 |

Technical Analysis | 31 | 43 |

Fundamental Analysis | 86 | 84 |

Risk Unsystematic | 37 | 40 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
- Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
- Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
- Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
- M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
- Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for IHT stock?A: IHT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing

Q: Is IHT stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IHT Stock.

Q: Is InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for InnSuites Hospitality Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of IHT stock?

A: The consensus rating for IHT is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for IHT stock?

A: The prediction period for IHT is (n+3 month)