Modelling A.I. in Economics

INGR Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock

Buy

Hold

Sell

Speculative

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Outlook: Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

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Abstract

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. (Patil, P., Wu, C.S.M., Potika, K. and Orang, M., 2020, January. Stock market prediction using ensemble of graph theory, machine learning and deep learning models. In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Software Engineering and Information Management (pp. 85-92).) We evaluate Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the INGR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell INGR stock.

Key Points

  1. Investment Risk
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. Reaction Function

INGR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of INGR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of INGR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

INGR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: INGR Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell INGR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock

  1. If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)
  2. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
  3. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
  4. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the INGR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell INGR stock.

Financial State Forecast for INGR Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4383
Market Risk8349
Technical Analysis3881
Fundamental Analysis9046
Risk Unsystematic5232

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 475 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  2. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  3. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  4. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  5. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
  6. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  7. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for INGR stock?
A: INGR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is INGR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell INGR Stock.
Q: Is Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of INGR stock?
A: The consensus rating for INGR is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for INGR stock?
A: The prediction period for INGR is (n+16 weeks)

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