Modelling A.I. in Economics

KTA KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED

Outlook: KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

The presented paper modeled and predicted stock returns using LSTM. The historical data of stock market were transformed into 30-days-long sequences with 10 learning features and 7-day earning rate labeling. The model was fitted by training on 1200000 sequences and tested using the other 350000 sequences. (Kumar, D., Sarangi, P.K. and Verma, R., 2021. A systematic review of stock market prediction using machine learning and statistical techniques. Materials Today: Proceedings.) We evaluate KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

KTA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of KTA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KTA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KTA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: KTA KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED

  1. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
  2. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  3. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  4. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for KTA KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 4530
Market Risk4771
Technical Analysis3040
Fundamental Analysis6180
Risk Unsystematic5681

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 875 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  2. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
  3. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  4. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  5. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  6. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  7. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for KTA stock?
A: KTA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is KTA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell KTA Stock.
Q: Is KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for KRAKATOA RESOURCES LIMITED is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KTA stock?
A: The consensus rating for KTA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for KTA stock?
A: The prediction period for KTA is (n+16 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.