Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:ADVT ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

This paper addresses problem of predicting direction of movement of stock and stock price index. The study compares four prediction models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), random forest and naive-Bayes with two approaches for input to these models.(Mehtab, S. and Sen, J., 2020. A time series analysis-based stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.11697.) We evaluate ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ADVT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. Investment Risk
  3. Trading Signals

LON:ADVT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ADVT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ADVT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ADVT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ADVT ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED

  1. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  2. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
  3. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.
  4. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ADVT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for LON:ADVT ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 5249
Market Risk5241
Technical Analysis7372
Fundamental Analysis7076
Risk Unsystematic4131

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 838 signals.

References

  1. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  2. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  3. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  4. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  5. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  6. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  7. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ADVT stock?
A: LON:ADVT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:ADVT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:ADVT Stock.
Q: Is ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ADVANCEDADVT LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ADVT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ADVT is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ADVT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ADVT is (n+6 month)

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