LON:AERS AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend.(Strader, T.J., Rozycki, J.J., Root, T.H. and Huang, Y.H.J., 2020. Machine learning stock market prediction studies: Review and research directions. Journal of International Technology and Information Management, 28(4), pp.63-83.) We evaluate AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AERS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Stock Rating
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. Trust metric by Neural Network

LON:AERS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AERS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AERS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AERS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AERS AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC

1. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
2. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.
3. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
4. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AERS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for LON:AERS AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B2
Operational Risk	32	70
Market Risk	69	30
Technical Analysis	52	49
Fundamental Analysis	71	30
Risk Unsystematic	54	85

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 833 signals.

References

1. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
2. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
3. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
4. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
6. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
7. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AERS stock?
A: LON:AERS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:AERS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:AERS Stock.
Q: Is AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AQUILA EUROPEAN RENEWABLES INCOME FUND PLC is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AERS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AERS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AERS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AERS is (n+4 weeks)

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