AC Investment Research

LON:AGFX ARGENTEX GROUP PLC Research Report

Outlook: ARGENTEX GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

Stock market forecasting is considered to be a challenging topic among time series forecasting. This study proposes a novel two-stage ensemble machine learning model named SVR-ENANFIS for stock price prediction by combining features of support vector regression (SVR) and ensemble adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ENANFIS).(Khan, W., Ghazanfar, M.A., Azam, M.A., Karami, A., Alyoubi, K.H. and Alfakeeh, A.S., 2020. Stock market prediction using machine learning classifiers and social media, news. Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing, pp.1-24.) We evaluate ARGENTEX GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AGFX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  3. What is prediction in deep learning?

LON:AGFX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ARGENTEX GROUP PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AGFX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AGFX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AGFX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AGFX ARGENTEX GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 23 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ARGENTEX GROUP PLC

  1. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
  2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  3. Measurement of a financial asset or financial liability and classification of recognised changes in its value are determined by the item's classification and whether the item is part of a designated hedging relationship. Those requirements can create a measurement or recognition inconsistency (sometimes referred to as an 'accounting mismatch') when, for example, in the absence of designation as at fair value through profit or loss, a financial asset would be classified as subsequently measured at fair value through profit or loss and a liability the entity considers related would be subsequently measured at amortised cost (with changes in fair value not recognised). In such circumstances, an entity may conclude that its financial statements would provide more relevant information if both the asset and the liability were measured as at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. An entity that first applies these amendments at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.31–7.2.34.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ARGENTEX GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AGFX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:AGFX ARGENTEX GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB1
Balance SheetBa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowBa3C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 782 signals.

References

  1. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  2. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  3. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  4. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  5. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
  6. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  7. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AGFX stock?
A: LON:AGFX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:AGFX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:AGFX Stock.
Q: Is ARGENTEX GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ARGENTEX GROUP PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AGFX stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AGFX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AGFX stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AGFX is (n+4 weeks)

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