Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:ARTL ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED

Outlook: ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

This paper tries to address the problem of stock market prediction leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. The stock market prediction can be modeled based on two principal analyses called technical and fundamental. In the technical analysis approach, the regression machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed to predict the stock price trend at the end of a business day based on the historical price data. In contrast, in the fundamental analysis, the classification ML algorithms are applied to classify the public sentiment based on news and social media.(Sureshkumar, K.K. and Elango, N.M., 2012. Performance analysis of stock price prediction using artificial neural network. Global journal of computer science and Technology.) We evaluate ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ARTL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

LON:ARTL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ARTL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ARTL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ARTL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ARTL ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED

  1. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.
  2. Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  3. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  4. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ARTL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for LON:ARTL ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B3
Operational Risk 3731
Market Risk3446
Technical Analysis3287
Fundamental Analysis8835
Risk Unsystematic8340

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 488 signals.

References

  1. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  2. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  3. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  4. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  5. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
  6. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  7. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ARTL stock?
A: LON:ARTL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is LON:ARTL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:ARTL Stock.
Q: Is ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ARTL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ARTL is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ARTL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ARTL is (n+3 month)



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