*AC Investment Research empowers individual investors to make better trading decisions by providing machine learning based objective stock market analysis and forecast.

LON:COBR COBRA RESOURCES PLC

Outlook: COBRA RESOURCES PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

This paper addresses problem of predicting direction of movement of stock and stock price index. The study compares four prediction models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), random forest and naive-Bayes with two approaches for input to these models.(Chen, S. and He, H., 2018, October. Stock prediction using convolutional neural network. In IOP Conference series: materials science and engineering (Vol. 435, No. 1, p. 012026). IOP Publishing.) We evaluate COBRA RESOURCES PLC prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:COBR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

LON:COBR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider COBRA RESOURCES PLC Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:COBR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:COBR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:COBR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:COBR COBRA RESOURCES PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for COBRA RESOURCES PLC

  1. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
  2. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).
  4. That the transferee is unlikely to sell the transferred asset does not, of itself, mean that the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. However, if a put option or guarantee constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset, then the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. For example, if a put option or guarantee is sufficiently valuable it constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset because the transferee would, in practice, not sell the transferred asset to a third party without attaching a similar option or other restrictive conditions. Instead, the transferee would hold the transferred asset so as to obtain payments under the guarantee or put option. Under these circumstances the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

COBRA RESOURCES PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:COBR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Financial State Forecast for LON:COBR COBRA RESOURCES PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 6435
Market Risk8577
Technical Analysis3463
Fundamental Analysis7343
Risk Unsystematic5640

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 512 signals.

References

  1. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  3. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  4. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  5. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  6. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  7. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:COBR stock?
A: LON:COBR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:COBR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:COBR Stock.
Q: Is COBRA RESOURCES PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for COBRA RESOURCES PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:COBR stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:COBR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:COBR stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:COBR is (n+8 weeks)

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